14 ILLINOIS BUSINESS LEADER CONNECTING Laura Ortega Lamela Executive Director International Business Council Illinois Chamber of Commerce On February 27, 2026, the Illinois Chamber’s International Business Council convened global economists, diplomats, and business leaders at Instituto Cervantes of Chicago for the 2026 Global Trade Outlook, our annual event examining the forces reshaping international commerce. Hosted in partnership with Wintrust Financial, this year’s program opened with remarks from Manuel Valenzu- ela (Director, Instituto Cervantes), Peter A. Steinmeyer (Illinois Cham- ber Exec Board.), and Laura Ortega (Director, International Business Council), who introduced the theme “Global Trade at a Crossroad: Geo- politics, Fragmentation, and the Rise of AI” and underscored the Cham- ber’s role in connecting Illinois to global markets. KEYNOTE HIGHLIGHTS: A WORLD OF SHIFTING RULES, NOT SHRINKING TRADE. Dr. Phil Levy, Lead Economist at the World Bank, delivered a rigor- ous keynote outlining three forces defining today’s global landscape: intensifying geoeconomic, geopoliti- cal, and policy fragmentation; rising uncertainty driven by tariff volatility and regulatory divergence; and re- silient globalization despite growing barriers. He noted that while global trade, FDI, and GDP have not collapsed amid turbulence, their underlying patterns are shifting. Global value chains continue to adapt, with mul- tinational enterprises still account- ing for a substantial share of world trading from 40% in 1990 to 64% in 2020. However, Levy emphasized that policy fragmentation since the WTO’s Uruguay Round has weak- ened multilateralism, contributed to the rapid expansion of preferential trade agreements, and fueled a surge in traderestrictive measures, particu- larly among large, highincome econ- omies. The result is more frequent tariff shocks, reduced predictability, and delayed investment and supply- chain reconfiguration as firms wait for clearer, more durable rules—sug- gesting that the full impact of recent tariff actions has yet to be realized. FIRESIDE CHAT INSIGHTS Following the keynote, Dr. Venkat Veeramani, Chief Economist at Wintrust Financial, moderated a fireside conversation that expanded to U.S. trade policy direction, tariff dynamics, shifting supply chains, the evolving role of the U.S. dollar amid dedollarization, and the influence of AI adoption on global investment patterns. The session underscored the interconnected nature of economic, technological, and policy forces, em- phasizing that executives should pre- pare for policydriven volatility while leveraging productivityenhancing technologies to offset cost pressures and regulatory frictions. 2026 Global Trade Outlook Highlights | Global Shif This year’s Global Trade Outlook provided the nearly one hundred attendees with valuable insights and new connections.
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